NQ and MNQ/Intraday breakout
JRH Breakout
A rules-based intraday breakout strategy for Nasdaq-100 futures. It stays flat on most days. When its conditions line up during US regular hours, it enters in the direction of the breakout with a stop-loss and a profit target attached, and it is flat before the 16:00 ET close.
- Markets
- NQ and MNQ
- Pace
- About one trade a week
- Hours
- US regular hours only
- Every trade
- Stop-loss and profit target
- Size
- Fixed, set by you
- Positions
- One at a time
On your chart
What you'll see, in order
The exact rules and settings are proprietary. This is the behavior you'll see, and the limits fixed in the code.
- Waits
On most days its conditions never line up, and it doesn't trade.
- Enters
When they line up during US regular hours, it enters in the direction of the breakout with the contracts you set.
- Protects
A stop-loss and a profit target go in as real orders the moment it fills.
- Exits
At the stop, at the target, or before the 16:00 ET close, whichever comes first.
- Flat
It never holds a position overnight and never has more than one trade on.
Hypothetical results
MNQ · May 2019 to Oct 2026 · 1 MNQ contract on every trade, no compounding · 1 point ($2) a round trip deducted · default preset
Most recent trade
Long. Win, +$110 at 1 MNQ
The day of its most recent trade in the research data, drawn as a simplified price path with the entry and the exit marked. No prices, times or levels are shown, and it is not to scale. Some trades lose.
Last three trades, newest first
- LongWin+$110at 1 MNQ
- LongLoss−$333at 1 MNQ
- ShortWin+$201.50at 1 MNQ
Net at the size shown, after the research costs. The first is the trade drawn above. No dates are shown.
Profit factor by half of the test period
Bars start at the 1.0 break-even line. Two similar halves suggest a steadier result than one strong half.
| Average trade | $44.02 |
| Winning trades | 59.5% |
| Worst day, open trades marked | −$523 |
| NQ cross-check, Jan 2018 to Oct 2026, 1 NQ contract | 462 trades, PF 1.82 (1.73 / 1.89) |
| NQ net and largest drawdown | 9,129 / 712.5 points |
Weak spots
- Picked from many variations. Its core rules came out of about 1,200 tests, and a later refinement was chosen on the same history. Testing that many raises the risk that the winner simply fits the past, so expect live results below the backtest.
- Uneven stretches. Long stretches of the test made little or lost money, and the second half was weaker than the first.
- NQ and MNQ only. Its core rules tested poorly on S&P 500 and Russell 2000 futures, so it isn't sold for them.
- Long quiet stretches. It trades about once a week, and some weeks have no trades at all.
How it was tested
- Data: clean 1-minute NQ and MNQ bars on the CME US Index Futures ETH session, Eastern time. MNQ from May 5 2019, when it began trading, and NQ from Jan 2018, both to Oct 5 2026.
- Costs: 1 point a round trip ($2 on MNQ, $20 on NQ) for commission and slippage. Your costs may be higher.
- Against chance: in the original research, its signals beat randomly chosen times traded the same way, with p below 0.001.
- Code check: in offline tests, the NinjaTrader strategy file reproduced the research model trade for trade on both markets.
- Your results will differ. NinjaTrader's Strategy Analyzer and live fills can differ from the research because of data and fill differences.
Hypothetical performanceCFTC Rule 4.41 · NFA Rule 2-29
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
What you control
Your settings
The signal logic is fixed. These are the settings you choose.
| Contracts | The fixed size of every trade. |
| Direction | Both sides, long only or short only. |
| Max risk per trade | Skips any trade whose stop would be farther away than your limit. Off by default. |
| Alerts | NinjaTrader alerts on each fill, on or off. |
| Chart display | Shows the open trade's entry, stop and target lines. |
| Trade log | An optional CSV file of your trades. |
Before you go live
Run JRH Breakout on Sim first
Your license key works on NinjaTrader's simulator as well as live accounts. Watch it on Sim and check each trade against the behavior on this page before you put real money behind it.